{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070201",
  "record_slug": "june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-kalshi-2026-07-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-02T13:28:56.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound consensus wavers near 3.75 to 4 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June Fed funds upper bound seen at 3.75-4%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound following June 2026 meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.29,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-09T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the Fed funds upper bound near 3.75-4.00%, pricing 93% above 3.50% but only 29% above 4.00%.",
    "A 57,000 June payroll print, well below the 113,000 consensus, is consistent with the market clustering below 4.00% rather than pricing in further hikes.",
    "The 55% reading at the 3.75% strike and sharp drop to 29% at 4.00% signals the market sees 3.75% as the probable ceiling, not a floor.",
    "Companion Kalshi ladder CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5 shows 99% above 3.50% but only 9% above 3.75%, implying a tighter consensus around 3.50-3.75% for a subsequent meeting, a steepening term structure."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "americanbanker.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/u-s-added-57-000-jobs-in-june-fed-outlook-muddied",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US added only 57,000 nonfarm payrolls in June, roughly half the consensus estimate, muddying the Fed's rate outlook.",
      "publisher": "americanbanker.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T13:28:56.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/u-s-added-57-000-jobs-in-june-fed-outlook-muddied"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; distribution spans 2.75%-5.25% with the sharpest probability cliff between 3.75% and 4.00%."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "americanbanker.com: US added 57,000 jobs in June; Fed outlook muddied | American Banker",
      "url": "https://www.americanbanker.com/news/u-s-added-57-000-jobs-in-june-fed-outlook-muddied",
      "published_at": "2026-07-02T13:28:56.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-03T10:32:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-kalshi-2026-07-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-at-3-75-4-kalshi-2026-07-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}