{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026063004",
  "record_slug": "june-nfp-implied-100k-125k-kalshi-ladder-64-above-100k-42-ab-2026-06-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T10:00:41.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "June payrolls consensus anchors in 100K-125K implied range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June NFP implied 100K-125K: Kalshi ladder 64% above 100K, 42% above 125K",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26JUN-T125000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 125000 jobs be added in June 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.42,
    "volume_24h_usd": 439.28,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "BLS",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-02T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies a June NFP modal range of 100K-125K, pricing 64% above 100K but only 42% above 125K.",
    "Brusuelas's 180K forecast sits well above the market-implied range, meaning the prediction market is pricing a more modest outcome than this analyst expects.",
    "A 180K print would resolve above the 125K ladder rung where the market assigns just 42% probability, implying the market is not fully crediting the bullish forecast.",
    "Resolves via BLS Employment Situation; the June unemployment rate printing at 4.3% (CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2) is consistent with payrolls in the lower end of the ladder range, not a blowout 180K."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Joseph Brusuelas",
          "source_url": "https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minute-we-expect-a-gain-of-180000-jobs-in-june/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "RSM Chief Economist Joseph Brusuelas forecasts a gain of 180,000 jobs in June, above current consensus, as a preview of the upcoming BLS Employment Situation release.",
      "publisher": "Joseph Brusuelas",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T10:00:41.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minute-we-expect-a-gain-of-180000-jobs-in-june/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves via BLS Employment Situation; the gap between the 180K analyst forecast and the 100K-125K implied market range is the key tension in this wire."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Joseph Brusuelas: Market Minute: We expect a gain of 180,000 jobs in June",
      "url": "https://realeconomy.rsmus.com/market-minute-we-expect-a-gain-of-180000-jobs-in-june/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T10:00:41.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-nfp-implied-100k-125k-kalshi-ladder-64-above-100k-42-ab-2026-06-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-nfp-implied-100k-125k-kalshi-ladder-64-above-100k-42-ab-2026-06-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}