{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061806",
  "record_slug": "june-u-3-unemployment-rate-seen-4-2-4-3-kalshi-2026-06-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-18T12:43:30.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "June unemployment rate consensus clusters between 4.2 and 4.3 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June U-3 unemployment rate seen 4.2-4.3%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 U-3 unemployment rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.3",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in June?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.96,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-02T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder implies a June 2026 unemployment rate in the 4.2-4.3% range, with 63% above 4.2% and only 31% above 4.3%.",
    "Low jobless claims data is consistent with the market's sub-4.3% central estimate, no sudden deterioration is being priced into the distribution.",
    "The ladder shows 99% above 3.9%, confirming the market sees no scenario in which June unemployment falls back to 2024 lows.",
    "Resolves via FRED official Bureau of Labor Statistics release; the June Employment Situation report is the settlement data point."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://ingest.abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-filings-unemployment-benefits-fall-226000-week-layoffs-133995874",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US initial jobless claims fell to 226,000 for the week ending June 14, extending a streak of historically low layoff filings.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T12:43:30.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://ingest.abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-filings-unemployment-benefits-fall-226000-week-layoffs-133995874"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's ladder clusters tightly at 4.2-4.3%, consistent with a stable but softening labor market reading from current claims data."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: US filings for unemployment benefits fall to 226,000 as layoffs remain",
      "url": "https://ingest.abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/us-filings-unemployment-benefits-fall-226000-week-layoffs-133995874",
      "published_at": "2026-06-18T12:43:30.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-21T11:13:58+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-u-3-unemployment-rate-seen-4-2-4-3-kalshi-2026-06-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-u-3-unemployment-rate-seen-4-2-4-3-kalshi-2026-06-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}