{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026063001",
  "record_slug": "june-u-3-unemployment-rate-seen-at-4-2-4-3-kalshi-2026-06-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T18:18:22.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "June unemployment rate consensus anchors near 4.2 to 4.3 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June U-3 unemployment rate seen at 4.2-4.3%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 U-3 unemployment rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.3",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in June?",
    "current_price": 0.37,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2552.5,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-02T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 99% above 3.9%, 69% above 4.2%, only 37% above 4.3%, implying consensus squarely in the 4.2-4.3% range.",
    "Volume surged 115x day-over-day on this contract, signaling a sharp burst of fresh attention as the JOLTS and ADP prints landed.",
    "ADP private payrolls came in at 98,000, missing expectations, consistent with the market tilting toward the higher end of the 4.2-4.3% band.",
    "Resolves via FRED data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; the official June U-3 figure settles the contract."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Reuters",
          "source_url": "https://gvwire.com/2026/06/30/us-job-openings-rise-to-two-year-high-but-hiring-still-struggling/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US job openings rose to a two-year high in June while hiring remained sluggish, painting a split labor-market picture ahead of Friday's nonfarm payrolls release.",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T18:18:22.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://gvwire.com/2026/06/30/us-job-openings-rise-to-two-year-high-but-hiring-still-struggling/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder on June 2026 U-3 unemployment rate drew exceptional volume, making this the sharpest labor-market signal in today's prediction-market prints."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Reuters: US Job Openings Rise to Two-Year High, but Hiring Still Struggling - G",
      "url": "https://gvwire.com/2026/06/30/us-job-openings-rise-to-two-year-high-but-hiring-still-struggling/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T18:18:22.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-02T10:34:14+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-u-3-unemployment-rate-seen-at-4-2-4-3-kalshi-2026-06-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-u-3-unemployment-rate-seen-at-4-2-4-3-kalshi-2026-06-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}