{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026063003",
  "record_slug": "june-unemployment-above-4-2-kalshi-72-above-4-3-36-2026-06-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-30T07:35:25.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "June unemployment at 4.2-4.3 percent absorbs report print",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June unemployment above 4.2%: Kalshi 72%, above 4.3% 36%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 unemployment rate (U-3)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.3",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in June?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 512.29,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-02T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder priced 72% above 4.2% and 36% above 4.3% pre-print, with a 4.3% actual result landing squarely in the high-probability band.",
    "The reported 4.3% unemployment rate is consistent with market pricing that already assigned meaningful odds to the 4.2-4.3% range.",
    "The companion June NFP ladder (CM-EVT-NHWMG744L8) implies a payroll gain in the 100K-125K range, consistent with a modest labor market that supports a 4.3% unemployment rate.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation release; large prior payroll revisions cited in the story are a known revision risk that does not affect the U-3 resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ins31.com",
          "source_url": "https://ins31.com/article/us-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-falls-to-4-3-despite-payroll-revisions",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A news report citing US Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in the June jobs report despite significant downward revisions to prior payroll counts.",
      "publisher": "ins31.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T07:35:25.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://ins31.com/article/us-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-falls-to-4-3-despite-payroll-revisions"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via BLS Employment Situation; the 4.3% print lands near the modal implied range, suggesting the market was well-positioned ahead of the release."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ins31.com: US Jobs Report: Unemployment Rate Falls to 4.3% Despite Payroll Revisi",
      "url": "https://ins31.com/article/us-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-falls-to-4-3-despite-payroll-revisions",
      "published_at": "2026-06-30T07:35:25.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-30T10:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-unemployment-above-4-2-kalshi-72-above-4-3-36-2026-06-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-unemployment-above-4-2-kalshi-72-above-4-3-36-2026-06-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}