{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026062606",
  "record_slug": "june-unemployment-rate-u-3-kalshi-4-2-4-3-2026-06-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-26T19:44:29.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "June unemployment rate consensus anchors near 4.2 to 4.3 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "June unemployment rate (U-3): Kalshi 4.2-4.3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-FJGT56DTV2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26jun",
  "event_question": "June 2026 unemployment rate (U-3)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26JUN-T4.3",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.3% in June?",
    "current_price": 0.3,
    "volume_24h_usd": 243.64,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-07-02T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies June unemployment in the 4.2-4.3% range: 72% above 4.2% but only 30% above 4.3%; trading volume up 808x day over day.",
    "Consumer-bruised-by-inflation narrative fits a softening labor market, and the ladder pricing is directionally consistent.",
    "Companion Kalshi ladder on June nonfarm payrolls implies 100K-125K jobs added; both reads point to a cooling but not collapsing labor market.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics June 2026 jobs report; U-3 is the headline unemployment measure."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "chloetejada",
          "source_url": "https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-us/insights/june-monthly-exec-briefing-us-consumer-bruised-by-persistent-inflation",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T12:28:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "A June executive briefing flagged persistent inflation and eroding consumer ability to absorb higher prices.",
      "publisher": "chloetejada",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T19:44:29.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-us/insights/june-monthly-exec-briefing-us-consumer-bruised-by-persistent-inflation"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The 808x surge in Kalshi ladder volume signals intense pre-release positioning ahead of the June jobs print."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "chloetejada: June Monthly Exec Briefing: U.S. consumer bruised by persistent inflat",
      "url": "https://www.rbcwealthmanagement.com/en-us/insights/june-monthly-exec-briefing-us-consumer-bruised-by-persistent-inflation",
      "published_at": "2026-06-26T19:44:29.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-29T12:28:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-unemployment-rate-u-3-kalshi-4-2-4-3-2026-06-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/june-unemployment-rate-u-3-kalshi-4-2-4-3-2026-06-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}