{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026103106",
  "record_slug": "kansas-senate-seat-for-republicans-kalshi-49-2026-10-31",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Kansas Senate race stays near a coin flip",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 49%",
  "headline": "Kansas Senate seat for Republicans: Kalshi 49%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-04"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-S6Y29BSL46",
  "target_event_slug": "senateks-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Kansas Senate seat be won by the Republican candidate in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATEKS-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?",
    "current_price": 0.49,
    "volume_24h_usd": 339914.8,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on the Republican candidate winning the Kansas Senate seat sits at 49%, effectively a coin flip.",
    "Justice Department subpoenas in multiple states and Trump's final-weekend rally schedule in Kansas signal both parties view this race as genuinely competitive.",
    "A Republican Kansas loss would significantly complicate GOP Senate retention; the 49% pricing reflects that binary uncertainty days before polls close.",
    "Resolves via the United States Congress; the Alaska Senate contract (CM-EVT-KQWMXB6NX7) at 31% for a new senator shows another competitive seat, adding to Senate math complexity."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "yahoo.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-campaign-control-congress-enters-100758118.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T14:15:55+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. midterm campaign enters its final weekend with competitive Senate races, including Kansas, shaping which party controls the upper chamber.",
      "publisher": "yahoo.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-campaign-control-congress-enters-100758118.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via the United States Congress; the near-50% price is one of the tightest Senate race readings in the current market suite."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "yahoo.com: US campaign for control of Congress enters final weekend",
      "url": "https://www.yahoo.com/news/politics/articles/us-campaign-control-congress-enters-100758118.html",
      "published_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-31T14:15:55+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/kansas-senate-seat-for-republicans-kalshi-49-2026-10-31/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/kansas-senate-seat-for-republicans-kalshi-49-2026-10-31.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}