{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061608",
  "record_slug": "kansas-senate-seat-republican-win-kalshi-78-2026-06-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-16T20:38:01.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Georgia Senate contest anchors Republican edge at 78 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 78%",
  "headline": "Kansas Senate seat Republican win: Kalshi 78%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-S6Y29BSL46",
  "target_event_slug": "senateks-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican or Democratic candidate win the Kansas Senate seat in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATEKS-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?",
    "current_price": 0.78,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices Republicans at 78% to win the Kansas Senate seat, reflecting a solid but not overwhelming GOP advantage.",
    "The Georgia result, where Trump's-backed candidate Collins advances to face Ossoff, is a separate race from Kansas, but both are closely watched Senate battlegrounds in the 2026 cycle.",
    "The 78% pricing implies meaningful Democratic competitiveness in Kansas, leaving roughly one-in-five odds for the minority party.",
    "Kalshi resolves this via United States Congress certification of the election result; the official winner declaration is the settlement trigger."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "iowapublicradio.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.iowapublicradio.org/news-from-npr/2026-06-16/georgia-results-collins-will-face-sen-ossoff-trumps-pick-loses-governor-runoff",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-18T11:48:44+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Georgia's Republican primary produced a Trump-backed Senate challenger to Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff, setting up a competitive fall race.",
      "publisher": "iowapublicradio.org",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T20:38:01.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.iowapublicradio.org/news-from-npr/2026-06-16/georgia-results-collins-will-face-sen-ossoff-trumps-pick-loses-governor-runoff"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "This Kalshi contract resolves via United States Congress records; the Kansas seat and Georgia-Ossoff race are both tracked as midterm Senate bellwethers."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "iowapublicradio.org: Georgia results: Collins will face Sen. Ossoff; Trump's pick loses gov",
      "url": "https://www.iowapublicradio.org/news-from-npr/2026-06-16/georgia-results-collins-will-face-sen-ossoff-trumps-pick-loses-governor-runoff",
      "published_at": "2026-06-16T20:38:01.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-18T11:48:44+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/kansas-senate-seat-republican-win-kalshi-78-2026-06-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/kansas-senate-seat-republican-win-kalshi-78-2026-06-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}