{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082308",
  "record_slug": "kansas-senate-seat-republican-win-kalshi-81-2026-08-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-23T08:41:09.387Z",
  "semantic_title": "Kansas Senate seat stays heavily favored for Republicans",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 81%",
  "headline": "Kansas Senate seat Republican win: Kalshi 81%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-S6Y29BSL46",
  "target_event_slug": "senateks-26",
  "event_question": "Will the Kansas Senate seat be won by the Republican candidate in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATEKS-26-R",
    "question_raw": "Will Republicans win the Senate race in Kansas?",
    "current_price": 0.81,
    "volume_24h_usd": 174.88,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 81% on the Republican candidate winning the Kansas Senate seat, resolves via the United States Congress.",
    "The Democratic Senate-majority narrative is not reflected in Kansas; the market firmly prices it as a Republican hold.",
    "The New Mexico Senate seat Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-ZD0C3KWW30) sits at 98% for Republicans, anchoring the upper bound of safe GOP territory.",
    "The Democratic leader internal dynamics Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-W0LJLH97L8) at 20% suggests limited internal pressure on Senate Democratic leadership despite midterm uncertainty."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ken Thomas in Washington and Siobhan Hughes in Mitchell, S.D.",
          "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/democrats-senate-midterm-election-odds-9844b4aa",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-24T08:42:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democrats are pursuing a path to recapture the Senate in the 2026 midterms, relying on competitive races across several states.",
      "publisher": "Ken Thomas in Washington and Siobhan Hughes in Mitchell, S.D.",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T08:41:09.387Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/democrats-senate-midterm-election-odds-9844b4aa"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via the United States Congress on the certified winner of the Kansas Senate general election."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ken Thomas in Washington and Siobhan Hughes in Mitchell, S.D.: Why Democrats Still Have a Shot at Winning the Senate",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/democrats-senate-midterm-election-odds-9844b4aa",
      "published_at": "2026-08-23T08:41:09.387Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-24T08:42:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/kansas-senate-seat-republican-win-kalshi-81-2026-08-23/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/kansas-senate-seat-republican-win-kalshi-81-2026-08-23.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}