{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026090402",
  "record_slug": "later-fed-funds-upper-bound-implied-3-75-4-0-kalshi-72-2026-09-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Markets put short odds on a rate hike above 4 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Later Fed funds upper bound implied 3.75-4.0%: Kalshi 72%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound, later 2026 meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5.54,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3) implies the later-cycle Fed funds upper bound in the 3.75-4.00% range, with 72% above 3.75% but only 31% above 4.00%.",
    "Fed Governor Christopher Waller's pause signal aligns with near-term hold pricing, but this longer-horizon ladder shows meaningful odds a hike above 4.00% is still on the table.",
    "The spread between this ladder and the September ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91, 2% above 4.00%) shows the market pricing pause now but keeping a hike optionality later.",
    "Kalshi contract resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcement for the relevant meeting date."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "fxstreet.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-weakens-as-feds-waller-signals-rate-pause-202609040225",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T12:28:22+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The US Dollar Index weakened after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signaled a potential rate pause, while market probability for a September Fed rate hike was cited at 50.2% by one source.",
      "publisher": "fxstreet.com",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-weakens-as-feds-waller-signals-rate-pause-202609040225"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi hosts both the near-term September contract and this longer-dated ladder; the divergence between them reflects term-structure uncertainty."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "fxstreet.com: United States Dollar Index weakens as Fed’s Waller signals rate pause",
      "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-weakens-as-feds-waller-signals-rate-pause-202609040225",
      "published_at": "2026-09-04T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-04T12:28:22+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/later-fed-funds-upper-bound-implied-3-75-4-0-kalshi-72-2026-09-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/later-fed-funds-upper-bound-implied-3-75-4-0-kalshi-72-2026-09-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}