{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081203",
  "record_slug": "later-meeting-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-75-4-0-kalshi-2026-08-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Longer-run Fed funds upper bound builds toward 3.75-4.0%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Later-meeting Fed funds upper bound at 3.75-4.0%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Fed funds upper bound at a later FOMC meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.23,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4.3,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder for a later meeting prices 79% above 3.50% and 53% above 3.75%, implying the mode sits in the 3.75-4.0% range.",
    "News consensus expects a September hold, but the later-meeting ladder shows markets see rates staying elevated well beyond September.",
    "Compare the near-term ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91) at only 29% above 3.75%: the term structure implies cuts arrive slowly, not in one move.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve policy announcement for the relevant meeting; the wide spread between 3.75% and 4.0% reflects genuine uncertainty on cut timing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
          "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data/articleshow/133191697.cms",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-14T09:03:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Economists and market participants expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged in September following soft July inflation data.",
      "publisher": "economictimes.indiatimes.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data/articleshow/133191697.cms"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's later-meeting ladder diverges meaningfully from the near-term one, revealing a slow-cut path rather than a sharp dovish pivot."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "economictimes.indiatimes.com: US Fed expected to leave rates unchanged next month after soft inflati",
      "url": "https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/us-stocks/news/us-fed-expected-to-leave-rates-unchanged-next-month-after-soft-inflation-data/articleshow/133191697.cms",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-14T09:03:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/later-meeting-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-75-4-0-kalshi-2026-08-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/later-meeting-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-75-4-0-kalshi-2026-08-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}