{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101501",
  "record_slug": "long-run-fed-funds-seen-at-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-15",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound seen near 4.0-4.25% long term",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Long-run Fed funds seen at 4.0-4.25%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Long-run federal funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.25",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.25% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 14.98,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder pins the long-run federal funds upper bound in the 4.0-4.25% range, with 83% above 4.0% but only 14% above 4.25%.",
    "Warsh's deliberate ambiguity on rate timing is consistent with a market that sees the cycle peak near 4.0-4.25%, not materially higher.",
    "A separate near-term Kalshi ladder (CM-EVT-6BS28TS762) prices the upper bound firmly at 3.75-4.0%, with 99% above 3.75% but only 16% above 4.0%, suggesting the market sees one more hike before the long-run level.",
    "Resolves via the Federal Reserve's official rate announcements; the gap between the two ladders implies the market prices a single incremental hike to reach the longer-run ceiling."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Steve Kopack",
          "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/will-fed-raise-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-offer-clues-rcna603661",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T07:47:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the timing of a rate hike despite hotter-than-expected inflation data setting the stage for a potential move sooner than expected.",
      "publisher": "Steve Kopack",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/will-fed-raise-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-offer-clues-rcna603661"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi hosts both the near-term and long-run funds rate ladders; the 69-percentage-point gap between the 4.0% strikes on each ladder is the market's implied hike premium."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Steve Kopack: Will the Fed raise interest rates? Kevin Warsh gives no clues",
      "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/will-fed-raise-interest-rates-kevin-warsh-offer-clues-rcna603661",
      "published_at": "2026-10-15T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-18T07:47:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/long-run-fed-funds-seen-at-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-15/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/long-run-fed-funds-seen-at-4-0-4-25-kalshi-ladder-2026-10-15.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}