{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081203",
  "record_slug": "longer-run-fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-08-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Longer-run Fed funds rate seen settling near 3.75-4.0%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Longer-run Fed funds upper bound: Kalshi 3.75-4.0%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MR57HVWJT3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26dec",
  "event_question": "Longer-run Fed funds upper bound",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26DEC-T4.00",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 4.00% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.22,
    "volume_24h_usd": 22.22,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-16T19:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder for a later Fed funds horizon implies a 3.75-4.0% upper bound: 81% above 3.50%, 51% above 3.75%, only 22% above 4.0%.",
    "Mild July CPI is consistent with a hold, but the ladder shows meaningful probability mass above the current 3.50-3.75% near-term range, reflecting lingering hike risk further out.",
    "The spread between this ladder and the post-September ladder (CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91, implied 3.50-3.75%) implies the market sees rates drifting slightly higher over a longer horizon.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate decisions; the named source is the Federal Reserve itself."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "semafor.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/08/12/2026/mild-us-inflation-eases-fed-pressure",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-15T08:21:50+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "US CPI rose just 0.1% in July, in line with expectations, easing pressure on the Federal Reserve ahead of September.",
      "publisher": "semafor.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/08/12/2026/mild-us-inflation-eases-fed-pressure"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's longer-horizon ladder sits about one quarter-point higher than the near-term ladder, capturing residual hike risk the September pause narrative does not fully eliminate."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "semafor.com: US inflation rises 0.1% in July, easing pressure on Fed | Semafor",
      "url": "https://www.semafor.com/article/08/12/2026/mild-us-inflation-eases-fed-pressure",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-15T08:21:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/longer-run-fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-08-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/longer-run-fed-funds-upper-bound-kalshi-3-75-4-0-2026-08-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}