{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110106",
  "record_slug": "major-cex-insolvency-2026-polymarket-5-2026-11-01",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-01T13:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Major crypto exchange insolvency stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "Major CEX insolvency 2026: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D87V37GQ54",
  "target_event_slug": "major-cex-insolvent-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will a major centralized cryptocurrency exchange become insolvent in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x8c8d8c91540aedf3f4ca4194256e9421843ef122155284129f3f5057ad5ec703",
    "question_raw": "Major CEX insolvent in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.046,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2148.094764,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market puts only 5% odds on a major centralized cryptocurrency exchange becoming insolvent in 2026.",
    "Binance's announcement that it covered 90% of hack losses from company cash is broadly consistent with the low insolvency probability the market is pricing.",
    "The 5% reading suggests the market is treating Binance's public communications as credible; a failure to cover the remaining 10% could shift this probability.",
    "The Ethereum price ladder (CM-EVT-G2G3Y09R59) shows only 11% odds above $3,500 by January 1, 2027, indicating broader crypto market stress beyond the Binance event."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Imogen James",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckpdg3ql4169o",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T14:42:33+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Binance says it has covered 90% of the 6.3 billion dollars in assets stolen in a major hack, with the remaining 10% to be sourced over time.",
      "publisher": "Imogen James",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T13:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckpdg3ql4169o"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Polymarket contract resolves via UMA oracle; insolvency would need an official acknowledgment or halt of customer withdrawals, which Binance has so far avoided by reopening withdrawals."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Imogen James: Crypto firm Binance covers 90% of losses after $6.3bn hack",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckpdg3ql4169o",
      "published_at": "2026-11-01T13:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T14:42:33+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/major-cex-insolvency-2026-polymarket-5-2026-11-01/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/major-cex-insolvency-2026-polymarket-5-2026-11-01.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}