{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092708",
  "record_slug": "major-crypto-exchange-insolvent-in-2026-polymarket-3-2026-09-27",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Major crypto exchange insolvency in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 3%",
  "headline": "Major crypto exchange insolvent in 2026: Polymarket 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-D87V37GQ54",
  "target_event_slug": "major-cex-insolvent-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will a major centralized cryptocurrency exchange become insolvent in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x8c8d8c91540aedf3f4ca4194256e9421843ef122155284129f3f5057ad5ec703",
    "question_raw": "Major CEX insolvent in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.028,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only a 3% chance a major centralized cryptocurrency exchange becomes insolvent in 2026.",
    "The $387 million Bitget breach is the largest crypto hack of 2026, yet the Polymarket insolvency contract is not moving off its floor, the market distinguishes a hack from an insolvency.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract prices Trump creating a National Bitcoin Reserve in 2026 at just 10%, keeping the broader institutional legitimacy narrative cautious.",
    "Polymarket resolves via uma_oracle on insolvency; a hack of this scale would need to trigger a full exchange run to push this contract toward resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "news.lavx.hu",
          "source_url": "https://news.lavx.hu/article/bitget-hit-by-more-than-387-million-crypto-breach-as-north-korean-hackers-face-scrutiny",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T07:47:06+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Bitget was hit by a $387 million crypto breach, the largest crypto theft of 2026, with North Korean hackers facing scrutiny.",
      "publisher": "news.lavx.hu",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.lavx.hu/article/bitget-hit-by-more-than-387-million-crypto-breach-as-north-korean-hackers-face-scrutiny"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 3% shows the market views even a record-size hack as unlikely to cascade into exchange failure, the hack and insolvency risk are being priced as separate events."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "news.lavx.hu: Bitget hit by more than $387 million crypto breach as North Korean hac",
      "url": "https://news.lavx.hu/article/bitget-hit-by-more-than-387-million-crypto-breach-as-north-korean-hackers-face-scrutiny",
      "published_at": "2026-09-27T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-27T07:47:06+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/major-crypto-exchange-insolvent-in-2026-polymarket-3-2026-09-27/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/major-crypto-exchange-insolvent-in-2026-polymarket-3-2026-09-27.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}