{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060302",
  "record_slug": "may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-2026-06-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "May 2026 payroll consensus anchors near 90K-100K jobs",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "May 2026 nonfarm payrolls implied 90K-100K: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26may",
  "event_question": "May 2026 nonfarm payrolls",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T100000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 100000 jobs be added in May 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.41,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2088.9,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau Of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-05T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi pins May 2026 nonfarm payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 53% above 90K but only 41% above 100K.",
    "ADP's 122K print is above the Kalshi modal range, suggesting official payrolls could surprise to the upside relative to current market pricing.",
    "Separately, rising jobless claims (Story 7) and the Challenger report showing 97K job cuts in May (Story 8) argue the ADP beat may not fully carry into the BLS headline.",
    "The Kalshi contract resolves via FRED/BLS official nonfarm payrolls data; the BLS and ADP series regularly diverge, limiting ADP's predictive edge."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ADP, Inc.",
          "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "ADP reported 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, above the depressed consensus, ahead of Friday's official nonfarm payrolls release.",
      "publisher": "ADP, Inc.",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org BLS nonfarm payroll release; ADP is a leading but imperfect predictor of the official figure."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ADP, Inc.: ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by",
      "url": "https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-122-000-jobs-in-may-annual-pay-was-up-4-4-302790127.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-2026-06-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-nonfarm-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-2026-06-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}