{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060306",
  "record_slug": "may-2026-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:23.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "May ADP payrolls above 100K priced near a coin flip",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "May 2026 payrolls implied ~90K-100K: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-QH49Q7F1N3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpayrolls-26may",
  "event_question": "May 2026 private payrolls (ADP)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPAYROLLS-26MAY-T100000",
    "question_raw": "Will above 100000 jobs be added in May 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.41,
    "volume_24h_usd": 2088.9,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau Of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-05T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implied May payrolls in the 90K-100K range: 53% above 90K, 41% above 100K, 29% above 125K.",
    "ADP's 122,000 print beat both the Kalshi market-implied midpoint and the Dow Jones 110K consensus.",
    "The 29% probability above 125K shows markets had already embedded some upside tail before the print.",
    "Companion October 2026 ladder (CM-EVT-6CSLHX0K76) implies a softer 70K-80K range, suggesting markets see May as a one-month beat, not a trend shift."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jeff Cox",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/adp-jobs-report-may-2026-payrolls-increase-by-122000.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "ADP reported 122,000 private-sector jobs added in May, beating the 110,000 consensus estimate.",
      "publisher": "Jeff Cox",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:23.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/adp-jobs-report-may-2026-payrolls-increase-by-122000.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's pre-print distribution undershot the ADP beat; the October ladder shows lingering caution about the labor market."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jeff Cox: ADP jobs report May 2026: Payrolls increase by 122,000",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/adp-jobs-report-may-2026-payrolls-increase-by-122000.html",
      "published_at": "2026-06-03T12:15:23.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-04T03:24:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-2026-payrolls-implied-90k-100k-kalshi-ladder-2026-06-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}