{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026061904",
  "record_slug": "may-core-pce-above-0-2-kalshi-ladder-implies-0-2-0-3-2026-06-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-19T02:31:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "May core PCE above zero nears full pricing in the distribution",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "May core PCE above 0.2%: Kalshi ladder implies 0.2-0.3%",
  "category_tag": "PRE_EVENT_PRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PG9RLBJ7F1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxpcecore-26may",
  "event_question": "May 2026 core PCE monthly rate",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPCECORE-26MAY-T0.3",
    "question_raw": "Will the rate of core PCE inflation be above 0.3% in May 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 46.28,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Economic Analysis",
    "resolves_at": "2026-06-25T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi's ladder centers May core PCE in the 0.2-0.3% range: 89% above 0.2% but only 48% above 0.3%, with 99% above zero.",
    "The retail sales beat adds upside pressure on the 0.3% strike, which sits at near coin-flip odds, consistent with a market that had already anticipated firm consumption.",
    "A print above 0.3% would reinforce the hawkish Warsh FOMC narrative and lift the probability of the Fed funds hike scenario priced at 40% on Polymarket.",
    "Resolves via the Bureau of Economic Analysis PCE release for May 2026; core PCE month-over-month is the settlement metric."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "marketdaily.com",
          "source_url": "https://marketdaily.com/may-retail-sales-2026-fed-rate-path/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-20T10:30:38+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "May retail sales rose 0.9%, beating forecasts, complicating the Fed's rate path and raising near-term inflation expectations.",
      "publisher": "marketdaily.com",
      "published_at": "2026-06-19T02:31:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://marketdaily.com/may-retail-sales-2026-fed-rate-path/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's distribution was positioned for firm inflation before the retail beat; the news is consistent with the existing pricing rather than a surprise."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "marketdaily.com: May Retail Sales Climb 0.9%, Beating Forecasts and Complicating Fed Ra",
      "url": "https://marketdaily.com/may-retail-sales-2026-fed-rate-path/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-19T02:31:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-20T10:30:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-core-pce-above-0-2-kalshi-ladder-implies-0-2-0-3-2026-06-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/may-core-pce-above-0-2-kalshi-ladder-implies-0-2-0-3-2026-06-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}