{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071307",
  "record_slug": "mcconnell-resigns-before-midterms-kalshi-25-2026-07-13",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "McConnell Senate resignation before midterms holds as a quarter-odds bet",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 25%",
  "headline": "McConnell resigns before midterms: Kalshi 25%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-DF795XDRC0",
  "target_event_slug": "kxretiremm-26",
  "event_question": "Will Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXRETIREMM-26",
    "question_raw": "Will Mitch McConnell resign his office early?",
    "current_price": 0.25,
    "volume_24h_usd": 20206.94,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 25% on Mitch McConnell resigning his Senate office before the midterms, resolving via Library of Congress.",
    "McConnell's unexplained absence since June 14 hospitalization and Graham's death simultaneously thin the Senate Republican leadership bench, lending the 25% reading context.",
    "The 94% Kalshi reading on CM-EVT-RSPZ64CMS2 for Senate Republicans losing primaries in 2026 reflects a separate but related Senate-volatility signal.",
    "Resolves via Library of Congress confirmation of a formal resignation; absence from public view alone does not trigger resolution."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/senate-returns-washington-after-sen-lindsey-grahams-death-134703677",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Senate returned to Washington with an uncertain agenda after Senator Lindsey Graham's sudden death, with Mitch McConnell also absent since his June 14 hospitalization.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/senate-returns-washington-after-sen-lindsey-grahams-death-134703677"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 25% treats McConnell's resignation as a meaningful tail risk given his hospitalization, but well short of a base-case outcome."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: Senate returns to Washington after Sen. Lindsey Graham's death with un",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/senate-returns-washington-after-sen-lindsey-grahams-death-134703677",
      "published_at": "2026-07-13T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-13T10:56:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mcconnell-resigns-before-midterms-kalshi-25-2026-07-13/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mcconnell-resigns-before-midterms-kalshi-25-2026-07-13.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}