{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026080606",
  "record_slug": "michigan-senate-dem-primary-second-place-kalshi-99-2026-08-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-06T08:52:41.982Z",
  "semantic_title": "Michigan Senate Democratic primary second place near certain",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 99%",
  "headline": "Michigan Senate Dem primary second place: Kalshi 99%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-25"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-KW32LYSWB7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxprimaryplace-senatemid26-2",
  "event_question": "Who will finish in second place in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXPRIMARYPLACE-SENATEMID26-2-HSTE",
    "question_raw": "Will Haley Stevens finish 2nd in the 2026 Michigan Senate Democratic primary?",
    "current_price": 0.99,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17.09,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "official election authority responsible for certifying results in geography",
    "resolves_at": "2027-08-04T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract on who finishes second in the Michigan Senate Democratic primary is priced at 99%, indicating the result is effectively settled.",
    "El-Sayed's confirmed primary win means the second-place finisher is also determined, making this contract consistent with the reported outcome.",
    "The primary result sets up a general election contest that will draw national attention given El-Sayed's progressive profile and Michigan's swing-state status.",
    "Resolves via the official election authority responsible for certifying Michigan primary results; at 99% the contract leaves minimal residual uncertainty."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "BBC",
          "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgdkpz07kvo",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Left-wing political outsider Abdul El-Sayed won the Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, according to BBC reporting.",
      "publisher": "BBC",
      "published_at": "2026-08-06T08:52:41.982Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgdkpz07kvo"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 99% resolves via official Michigan election certification; near-full pricing reflects reported outcome."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "BBC: Left-wing political outsider wins Democratic Senate primary in Michiga",
      "url": "https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgdkpz07kvo",
      "published_at": "2026-08-06T08:52:41.982Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-07T08:53:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/michigan-senate-dem-primary-second-place-kalshi-99-2026-08-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/michigan-senate-dem-primary-second-place-kalshi-99-2026-08-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}