{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101207",
  "record_slug": "microstrategy-margin-called-in-2026-polymarket-2-2026-10-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Strategy margin call in 2026 stays a remote risk at 2%",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 2%",
  "headline": "MicroStrategy margin called in 2026: Polymarket 2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-27GSKRDLZ7",
  "target_event_slug": "will-microstrategy-be-margin-called-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x48f7e0d0c13d8dba8f533d8fcac51c873727ac8993fc8eb1ca7c13b7cabe3c20",
    "question_raw": "Will MicroStrategy be margin called in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.025,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only a 2% probability on MicroStrategy being margin called in 2026.",
    "Continued accumulation by Strategy, buying at current Bitcoin prices near $82,000-$84,000, is consistent with the market's near-zero assessment of forced liquidation risk.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on MicroStrategy holding over 500,000 BTC sits at 4%, which is puzzling given reported holdings already exceed 848,000 BTC, that contract may be stale or misspecified.",
    "Resolution via Polymarket's UMA oracle would require a publicly confirmed margin call event; at 848,250 BTC held, the market sees that as a distant tail risk."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "theblock.co",
          "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-12-theres-always-room-for-more-orange-michael-saylors-strategy-scoops-up-another-250-bitcoin-for-21-5-million-as-holdings-reach-848250-btc-418275",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased an additional 250 Bitcoin for roughly $21.5 million, bringing total holdings to 848,250 BTC.",
      "publisher": "theblock.co",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-12-theres-always-room-for-more-orange-michael-saylors-strategy-scoops-up-another-250-bitcoin-for-21-5-million-as-holdings-reach-848250-btc-418275"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract on MicroStrategy margin call in 2026; at 2%, the market treats forced liquidation as a near-negligible risk despite Bitcoin's elevated volatility this month."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "theblock.co: 'There’s always room for more orange': Michael Saylor's Strategy scoop",
      "url": "https://www.theblock.co/news/business/2026-10-12-theres-always-room-for-more-orange-michael-saylors-strategy-scoops-up-another-250-bitcoin-for-21-5-million-as-holdings-reach-848250-btc-418275",
      "published_at": "2026-10-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-12T17:17:25+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/microstrategy-margin-called-in-2026-polymarket-2-2026-10-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/microstrategy-margin-called-in-2026-polymarket-2-2026-10-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}