{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026073108",
  "record_slug": "midterm-elections-on-schedule-kalshi-90-2026-07-31",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Midterm elections staying on schedule priced as near certainty",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 90%",
  "headline": "Midterm elections on schedule: Kalshi 90%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
    "question_raw": "Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?",
    "current_price": 0.9,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 90% on the 2026 midterm elections happening on schedule.",
    "Despite the administration's earlier gutting of election security infrastructure and ongoing rebuilding efforts, markets see only a 10% chance of any delay or cancellation.",
    "Noncitizen voter roll claims by the Trump administration and rebuilding security gaps are narrative risks, but Kalshi's 90% reflects that legal and constitutional constraints make delay very unlikely.",
    "Kalshi resolves via The Washington Post; any official postponement or cancellation of a scheduled federal election would trigger a NO."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Tierney Sneed, Sean Lyngaas, Evan Perez",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/31/politics/trump-admin-rebuild-election-security-months-after-gutting-it",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Trump administration is rebuilding election security infrastructure it had previously dismantled as the 2026 midterms approach.",
      "publisher": "Tierney Sneed, Sean Lyngaas, Evan Perez",
      "published_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/31/politics/trump-admin-rebuild-election-security-months-after-gutting-it"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 90% treats election schedule disruption as a tail risk only, consistent with the constitutional difficulty of postponing federal elections."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Tierney Sneed, Sean Lyngaas, Evan Perez: Trump admin tries to rebuild election security infrastructure it gutte",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/31/politics/trump-admin-rebuild-election-security-months-after-gutting-it",
      "published_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-01T09:54:52+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterm-elections-on-schedule-kalshi-90-2026-07-31/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterm-elections-on-schedule-kalshi-90-2026-07-31.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}