{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071003",
  "record_slug": "midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-91-2026-07-10",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-10T02:15:30.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Midterm elections on-schedule consensus holds firm",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 91%",
  "headline": "Midterms happen on schedule: Kalshi 91%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
    "question_raw": "Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?",
    "current_price": 0.91,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1228.43,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market puts 91% on midterm elections proceeding on schedule, resolving via The Washington Post.",
    "Trump's firing of EAC members is a significant institutional disruption, yet the Kalshi contract prices only a 9% chance elections are delayed or cancelled.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on proof-of-citizenship requirements for federal voter registration sits at just 12%, suggesting markets see procedural pressure but not structural collapse.",
    "Resolution depends on The Washington Post confirming elections occur on the legally scheduled date; court challenges to the EAC firings could be a key wildcard before settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "channelnewsasia.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-us-midterm-election-fires-election-assistance-commission-6245366",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "President Trump fired all remaining members of the U.S. Election Assistance Commission, disabling the only federal agency solely devoted to election administration ahead of the midterms.",
      "publisher": "channelnewsasia.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T02:15:30.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-us-midterm-election-fires-election-assistance-commission-6245366"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via The Washington Post; the 91% price implies markets are absorbing the EAC news as a governance stress, not an existential threat to the election calendar."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "channelnewsasia.com: Trump fires Election Assistance Commission members ahead of midterms -",
      "url": "https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/trump-us-midterm-election-fires-election-assistance-commission-6245366",
      "published_at": "2026-07-10T02:15:30.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-10T10:49:37+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-91-2026-07-10/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-91-2026-07-10.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}