{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102606",
  "record_slug": "midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-93-2026-10-26",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-26T22:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Midterm elections on schedule stays firmly priced near certainty",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 93%",
  "headline": "Midterms happen on schedule: Kalshi 93%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-27",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
    "question_raw": "Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?",
    "current_price": 0.93,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19674.81,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the midterm elections proceeding on schedule at 93%, treating legal challenges like the California ballot dispute as unlikely to derail the November 3 date.",
    "The DOJ ballot challenge being rejected by an appeals court is consistent with the market's near-certainty; legal friction is not moving the probability toward disruption.",
    "A companion Polymarket contract on the California 25th District winner (CM-EVT-3DFWF9RX19) sits at 94%, showing district-level markets also pricing normal resolution timelines.",
    "Resolves via The Washington Post; Kalshi will look for independent reporting confirming elections occurred as scheduled on November 3."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Jeremy Herb, Tierney Sneed",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/26/politics/california-mail-ballot-noncitizen-appeals-court-rejects",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T07:48:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "An appeals court rejected the Trump DOJ's demand to set aside 20,000 California mail ballots, adding to election-integrity friction ahead of November 3.",
      "publisher": "Jeremy Herb, Tierney Sneed",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T22:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/26/politics/california-mail-ballot-noncitizen-appeals-court-rejects"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 93% on-schedule probability absorbs the California mail-ballot court fight without repricing, indicating the market treats it as a local dispute rather than a systemic threat."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Jeremy Herb, Tierney Sneed: Appeals court rejects Trump DOJ demand to set aside 20,000 California",
      "url": "https://www.cnn.com/2026/10/26/politics/california-mail-ballot-noncitizen-appeals-court-rejects",
      "published_at": "2026-10-26T22:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-27T07:48:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-93-2026-10-26/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-93-2026-10-26.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}