{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110207",
  "record_slug": "midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-93-2026-11-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-02T16:58:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Midterm elections proceeding on schedule stays near certain",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 93%",
  "headline": "Midterms happen on schedule: Kalshi 93%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": "YES",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 1,
    "resolved_at": "2026-11-03"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
    "question_raw": "Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?",
    "current_price": 0.93,
    "volume_24h_usd": 48090.78,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices the midterm elections proceeding on schedule at 93%, treating the California ballot dispute as unlikely to derail election day.",
    "The emergency Supreme Court appeal targets 20,000 California ballots; the Kalshi contract implies markets see this as a localized legal skirmish, not a systemic delay.",
    "The Polymarket CA-25 contract (CM-EVT-3DFWF9RX19 at 98%) pricing a November 3 California district winner determination is consistent with election day proceeding normally.",
    "Resolution via The Washington Post's certification of election-day execution; a Supreme Court intervention blocking the election outright would be the edge case invalidating the 93% consensus."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Patrick Marley",
          "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/11/02/trump-administration-asks-supreme-court-set-aside-20000-california-ballots-now/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T17:44:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to set aside 20,000 disputed California mail ballots the day before the midterm elections.",
      "publisher": "Patrick Marley",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T16:58:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/11/02/trump-administration-asks-supreme-court-set-aside-20000-california-ballots-now/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via The Washington Post's confirmation that the 2026 midterm elections occurred on their scheduled date."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Patrick Marley: Trump administration asks Supreme Court to set aside 20,000 California",
      "url": "https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/11/02/trump-administration-asks-supreme-court-set-aside-20000-california-ballots-now/",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T16:58:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T17:44:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-93-2026-11-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-happen-on-schedule-kalshi-93-2026-11-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}