{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026091804",
  "record_slug": "midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-84-2026-09-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Midterm elections on schedule priced as near-certain by markets",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 84%",
  "headline": "Midterms on schedule: Kalshi 84%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-19",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
    "question_raw": "Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?",
    "current_price": 0.84,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5084.62,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi contract prices an 84% probability that the midterm elections proceed on their scheduled date despite the legal challenge.",
    "The lawsuit targets federal law enforcement deployment at polling sites; Kalshi's 84% implies the market views a schedule disruption as a real but minority risk.",
    "A 16% probability of off-schedule elections is unusually elevated for what is typically a near-certainty, suggesting the market is treating the litigation and political pressure as non-trivial.",
    "Resolves via The Washington Post as the named resolution source; any court-ordered delay or logistical disruption to polling would be the key settlement edge case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Ariana Baio",
          "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/18/trump-administration-sued-federal-law-enforcement-voting",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T07:47:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The Trump administration faces a lawsuit over its threat to deploy federal law enforcement at voting sites, raising procedural concerns about the November 2026 midterm elections.",
      "publisher": "Ariana Baio",
      "published_at": "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/18/trump-administration-sued-federal-law-enforcement-voting"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "The Kalshi contract at 84% is lower than one might expect for a scheduled constitutional event, reflecting uncertainty introduced by the federal law enforcement controversy."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Ariana Baio: Trump administration sued over threat to deploy federal law enforcemen",
      "url": "https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/18/trump-administration-sued-federal-law-enforcement-voting",
      "published_at": "2026-09-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T07:47:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-84-2026-09-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-84-2026-09-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}