{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071803",
  "record_slug": "midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-85-volume-up-32x-day-day-2026-07-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Midterm elections on-schedule consensus holds firm at 85 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 85%",
  "headline": "Midterms on schedule: Kalshi 85%; volume up 32x day/day",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT9T7KMRT5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxmidtermhappen-2026",
  "event_question": "Will the midterm elections happen on schedule?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXMIDTERMHAPPEN-2026-T50",
    "question_raw": "Will at least 50 states conduct 2026 U.S. House midterms on time?",
    "current_price": 0.85,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1079.15,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The Washington Post",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-10T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi contract on midterm elections proceeding on schedule prices at 85%, with trading volume up 3,131% (32.3x) day over day.",
    "Despite Trump administration threats to election officials and claims of broad vulnerabilities, the market still puts only a 15% chance elections are disrupted or delayed.",
    "The volume surge signals the election-interference narrative is pulling fresh attention to this contract, even as the probability itself remains elevated.",
    "Resolves via The Washington Post confirming whether midterm elections are held on their scheduled date."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "dnyuz.com",
          "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/18/trump-allies-seek-to-sow-mistrust-about-election-security-ahead-of-midterms/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Trump and allies escalated attacks on US election security ahead of midterms, with DHS Secretary Mullin threatening funding cuts to non-compliant states.",
      "publisher": "dnyuz.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/18/trump-allies-seek-to-sow-mistrust-about-election-security-ahead-of-midterms/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract at 85% with a 32x volume spike shows heightened engagement from election-threat news, but the market is not moving toward a disruption scenario."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "dnyuz.com: Trump, allies seek to sow mistrust about election security ahead of mi",
      "url": "https://dnyuz.com/2026/07/18/trump-allies-seek-to-sow-mistrust-about-election-security-ahead-of-midterms/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-18T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-18T09:20:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-85-volume-up-32x-day-day-2026-07-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/midterms-on-schedule-kalshi-85-volume-up-32x-day-day-2026-07-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}