{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071408",
  "record_slug": "mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-in-2026-kalshi-5-2026-07-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-14T01:14:14.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Johnson Speaker removal in 2026 remains a fringe pricing call",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 5%",
  "headline": "Mike Johnson out as Speaker in 2026: Kalshi 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YSH7DQ1TV1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsothleave-26",
  "event_question": "Will Mike Johnson be out as Speaker of the House in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSOTHLEAVE-26-NOV",
    "question_raw": "Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 77.54,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices Speaker Mike Johnson losing the speakership in 2026 at just 5%, despite reported Republican anxiety ahead of midterms.",
    "The low probability is consistent with a market that sees internal GOP frustration as insufficient to trigger a formal leadership challenge this cycle.",
    "Republican midterm anxiety tends to suppress, not accelerate, internal leadership battles as members avoid two-front fights.",
    "Resolves via The New York Times confirmation of Johnson's removal; the multi-deadline structure means the contract covers the full 2026 calendar year."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "CNN Newssource",
          "source_url": "https://krdo.com/news/2026/07/13/johnson-gambles-on-ambitious-summer-agenda-as-gop-anxiety-rises-ahead-of-midterms/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "House Republicans returned to Washington in a dour mood about midterm prospects as Speaker Mike Johnson pursued an ambitious summer legislative agenda amid rising GOP anxiety.",
      "publisher": "CNN Newssource",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T01:14:14.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://krdo.com/news/2026/07/13/johnson-gambles-on-ambitious-summer-agenda-as-gop-anxiety-rises-ahead-of-midterms/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 5% Johnson removal contract shows prediction markets are largely dismissing the reported GOP anxiety as a near-term speakership threat."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "CNN Newssource: Johnson gambles on ambitious summer agenda as GOP anxiety rises ahead",
      "url": "https://krdo.com/news/2026/07/13/johnson-gambles-on-ambitious-summer-agenda-as-gop-anxiety-rises-ahead-of-midterms/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T01:14:14.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-14T09:54:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-in-2026-kalshi-5-2026-07-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-in-2026-kalshi-5-2026-07-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}