{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071706",
  "record_slug": "mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-in-2026-kalshi-9-2026-07-17",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Johnson speaker exit in 2026 holds at low probability",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 9%",
  "headline": "Mike Johnson out as Speaker in 2026: Kalshi 9%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-YSH7DQ1TV1",
  "target_event_slug": "kxsothleave-26",
  "event_question": "Will Mike Johnson be out as Speaker of the House in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXSOTHLEAVE-26-NOV",
    "question_raw": "Will Mike Johnson no longer be Speaker of the House before 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.093,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "The New York Times",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices only 9% on Mike Johnson losing the Speaker role in 2026.",
    "Trump's speech upending House Republican plans is a real pressure point, but the market sees it as unlikely to cost Johnson the speakership.",
    "The low 9% is consistent with Johnson retaining Trump's backing; the lobbying effort itself signals a working relationship rather than a rupture.",
    "Resolves via The New York Times confirmation; a speakership vote or Johnson resignation before year-end would settle the Kalshi contract YES."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Eren Waris",
          "source_url": "https://news.meaww.com/what-mike-johnson-is-privately-asking-trump-to-do-after-his-speech-scrambled-gop-plans",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-20T10:47:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "House Speaker Mike Johnson is privately lobbying President Trump after Trump's election speech scrambled Republican legislative strategy heading into SAVE America Act negotiations.",
      "publisher": "Eren Waris",
      "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://news.meaww.com/what-mike-johnson-is-privately-asking-trump-to-do-after-his-speech-scrambled-gop-plans"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolved by The New York Times; current pricing reflects that intra-party tension rarely translates to a speaker removal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Eren Waris: What Mike Johnson is privately asking Trump to do after his speech scr",
      "url": "https://news.meaww.com/what-mike-johnson-is-privately-asking-trump-to-do-after-his-speech-scrambled-gop-plans",
      "published_at": "2026-07-17T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-20T10:47:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-in-2026-kalshi-9-2026-07-17/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/mike-johnson-out-as-speaker-in-2026-kalshi-9-2026-07-17.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}