{
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  "record_slug": "mitch-mcconnell-steps-down-from-senate-b-vol-229639",
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  "published_at": "2026-07-24T10:14:05+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Heavy trading backs McConnell Senate exit at 41%",
  "telemetry": "41% · $230K 24h",
  "headline": "McConnell Senate exit: 41% on $230K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-28",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-9DBYNLBPG3",
  "target_event_slug": "will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends",
  "event_question": "Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x15d2e66dcf1d63c5695d6d0e9e2f8e06dd246d00fd5dfc254f2b22baa33bfa1b",
    "question_raw": "Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?",
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    "volume_24h_usd": 229639.04661000005,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 703632.9274129998,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Market prices a 41% chance McConnell vacates his seat before term ends, near coin-flip territory.",
    "Polymarket logs $230K in 24h, equal to 33% of all-time volume, a sharp single-session concentration.",
    "Fresh attention on a sitting senator's tenure signals traders are pricing real near-term event risk.",
    "Resolves YES if McConnell formally steps down before his Senate term expires."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
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      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
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        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 229639.04661000005
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before h",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-mitch-mcconnell-resign-from-the-senate-before-his-term-ends",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-24T10:14:05+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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