{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026060403",
  "record_slug": "more-tech-layoffs-in-2026-than-2025-kalshi-89-2026-06-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-04T09:30:35.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Tech layoff consensus solidifies above 2025 levels",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 89%",
  "headline": "More tech layoffs in 2026 than 2025: Kalshi 89%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZTGN9MPFL9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlayoffsyinfo-26",
  "event_question": "Will there be more tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLAYOFFSYINFO-26-494000",
    "question_raw": "More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?",
    "current_price": 0.889,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1614.78,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "fred.stlouisfed.org",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi places 89% odds that 2026 tech layoffs exceed 2025 totals, resolving via FRED data.",
    "The Challenger report showing tech cuts at their highest since 2023 is consistent with this elevated probability.",
    "AI-driven displacement is now the stated primary reason for cuts three months running, reinforcing the structural rather than cyclical read.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract on white-collar layoffs broadly (CM-EVT-0QDTY1D1Y1) sits at 72%, showing markets view tech as the hardest-hit segment within a wider white-collar trend."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Nicole Lobdell",
          "source_url": "https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-may-job-cuts-rise-16-from-april-highest-may-total-since-2020/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Challenger, Gray and Christmas reported May job cuts rose 16% from April, with tech cuts at their highest since 2023 and AI cited as the lead reason for a third straight month.",
      "publisher": "Nicole Lobdell",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T09:30:35.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-may-job-cuts-rise-16-from-april-highest-may-total-since-2020/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract resolves via fred.stlouisfed.org annual layoff data; full-year comparison requires waiting until the 2026 calendar year closes."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Nicole Lobdell: Challenger Report: May Job Cuts Rise 16% from April; Highest May Total",
      "url": "https://www.challengergray.com/blog/challenger-report-may-job-cuts-rise-16-from-april-highest-may-total-since-2020/",
      "published_at": "2026-06-04T09:30:35.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-05T11:24:05+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/more-tech-layoffs-in-2026-than-2025-kalshi-89-2026-06-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/more-tech-layoffs-in-2026-than-2025-kalshi-89-2026-06-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}