{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093004",
  "record_slug": "more-tech-layoffs-in-2026-vs-2025-kalshi-95-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "More tech layoffs in 2026 than 2025 stays heavily favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 95%",
  "headline": "More tech layoffs in 2026 vs 2025: Kalshi 95%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZTGN9MPFL9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxlayoffsyinfo-26",
  "event_question": "More tech layoffs in 20​26 than in 2025?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXLAYOFFSYINFO-26-494000",
    "question_raw": "More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?",
    "current_price": 0.951,
    "volume_24h_usd": 599.64,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "FRED",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-01T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 95% odds on 2026 tech layoffs exceeding 2025 totals, a heavily favored outcome.",
    "The weak 90,000 ADP print and slowing wage growth are consistent with the broad labor softening this contract implies.",
    "Resolution via FRED data; the ADP figure is a private-sector proxy, not the official measure, so the final read depends on reported tech-sector layoffs in FRED.",
    "No companion contract with a price is available to frame a term-structure comparison."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ADP Inc.",
          "source_url": "https://lifestyle.menstyle1.com/story/906886/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-90000-jobs-in-september/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:47:27+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "ADP reported private-sector employment rose by only 90,000 jobs in September, with base pay growth slowing to 3.2%.",
      "publisher": "ADP Inc.",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://lifestyle.menstyle1.com/story/906886/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-90000-jobs-in-september/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi prices this near certainty; the soft ADP print adds corroborating context but does not directly resolve the contract."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ADP Inc.: ADP National Employment Report: Private-Sector Employment Increased by",
      "url": "https://lifestyle.menstyle1.com/story/906886/adp-national-employment-report-private-sector-employment-increased-by-90000-jobs-in-september/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-01T07:47:27+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/more-tech-layoffs-in-2026-vs-2025-kalshi-95-2026-09-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/more-tech-layoffs-in-2026-vs-2025-kalshi-95-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}