{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092506",
  "record_slug": "nasdaq-100-implied-range-31400-31600-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-25",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-25T15:46:11.621Z",
  "semantic_title": "Nasdaq-100 market-implied level holds in the 31400 to 31600 range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Nasdaq-100 implied range 31400-31600: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HYFSJ2CNW7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxnasdaq100maxy-26dec31h1600",
  "event_question": "Nasdaq-100 index level",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXNASDAQ100MAXY-26DEC31H1600-T31599.99",
    "question_raw": "Will the Nasdaq-100 be above 31599.99 at the end of Dec 31, 2026 at 4pm EST?",
    "current_price": 0.44,
    "volume_24h_usd": 114.4,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "For example, Google Finance",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-08T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi ladder prices the Nasdaq-100 market-implied range at approximately 31400 to 31600, with 68% above 31400 but only 44% above 31600.",
    "Trading volume on this ladder surged roughly 59000 times day-over-day, a sharp signal of fresh positioning amid the jobs and rate-hike uncertainty.",
    "The current Nasdaq spot level cited in the story excerpt is 27099, well below the ladder's implied range, the ladder likely references a different contract horizon or index definition; traders should verify the exact contract terms.",
    "The tail is notable: only 19% probability above 32000, suggesting the market caps the near-term upside even as volume floods in."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "By Dow Jones Newswires staff",
          "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-jobs-data-in-focus-as-another-fed-rate-hike-looks-possible-8593c44f",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Wall Street week-ahead coverage flags US jobs data and possible Fed rate hike as the key tests for equities and bonds, with the Nasdaq already at 27099.",
      "publisher": "By Dow Jones Newswires staff",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T15:46:11.621Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-jobs-data-in-focus-as-another-fed-rate-hike-looks-possible-8593c44f"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder contract volume confirmed at 59405x day-over-day; resolution source unspecified, contract terms should be checked before trading."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "By Dow Jones Newswires staff: Week Ahead for FX, Bonds: U.S. Jobs Data in Focus as Another Fed Rate",
      "url": "https://www.wsj.com/economy/week-ahead-for-fx-bonds-u-s-jobs-data-in-focus-as-another-fed-rate-hike-looks-possible-8593c44f",
      "published_at": "2026-09-25T15:46:11.621Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-26T07:47:13+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nasdaq-100-implied-range-31400-31600-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-25/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nasdaq-100-implied-range-31400-31600-kalshi-ladder-2026-09-25.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}