{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070406",
  "record_slug": "nato-article-5-invoked-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-07-04",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-04T02:52:37.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "NATO Article 5 invocation before 2027 holds at deep discount",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 5%",
  "headline": "NATO Article 5 invoked before 2027: Polymarket 5%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4WNT5S6CN2",
  "target_event_slug": "nato-article-5-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will NATO Article 5 be invoked before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xe7743a393cd98bb7a7cd011361b74a0fd12bac3412643873f4661fcc431ed165",
    "question_raw": "NATO article 5 before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prediction market prices only 5% on NATO Article 5 being invoked before 2027.",
    "Nauseda's public demand for U.S. reassurance signals allied anxiety, but the 5% Polymarket price shows markets are not pricing a near-term invocation.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract CM-EVT-FD56H0NQ25 prices 99% that Trump attends the NATO summit, suggesting his presence is near-certain even as commitment language is contested.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's oracle resolution process based on an official Article 5 invocation by a NATO member."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "aa.com.tr",
          "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/lithuanian-president-seeks-clear-us-commitment-to-natos-collective-defense-ahead-of-summit/3985805",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:12+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda called for an unambiguous U.S. commitment to Article 5 ahead of the NATO summit, saying allies are still waiting for a clear statement.",
      "publisher": "aa.com.tr",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T02:52:37.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/lithuanian-president-seeks-clear-us-commitment-to-natos-collective-defense-ahead-of-summit/3985805"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 5% pricing on Article 5 invocation is sharply at odds with the diplomatic anxiety expressed by Lithuanian leadership, indicating markets are treating the rhetoric as posturing rather than a genuine escalation signal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "aa.com.tr: Lithuanian president seeks clear US commitment to NATO's collective de",
      "url": "https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/lithuanian-president-seeks-clear-us-commitment-to-natos-collective-defense-ahead-of-summit/3985805",
      "published_at": "2026-07-04T02:52:37.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-04T10:05:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nato-article-5-invoked-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-07-04/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nato-article-5-invoked-before-2027-polymarket-5-2026-07-04.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}