{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071603",
  "record_slug": "nato-article-5-invoked-before-2027-polymarket-8-2026-07-16",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-16T03:45:08.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "NATO Article 5 invocation risk holds at deep discount",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 8%",
  "headline": "NATO Article 5 invoked before 2027: Polymarket 8%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4WNT5S6CN2",
  "target_event_slug": "nato-article-5-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will NATO Article 5 be invoked before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xe7743a393cd98bb7a7cd011361b74a0fd12bac3412643873f4661fcc431ed165",
    "question_raw": "NATO article 5 before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.08,
    "volume_24h_usd": 3575.80645,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 8% on NATO Article 5 being invoked before 2027, even as Iran strikes US bases hosting NATO-allied forces.",
    "Attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan directly implicate allied-hosting nations, yet markets hold the formal collective-defense trigger at a deep discount.",
    "Markets appear to distinguish between strikes on US-operated bases in allied territory and a formal attack on NATO member soil that would trigger Article 5.",
    "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; the question requires formal Article 5 invocation, not merely allied territory incidents, which narrows the resolution trigger significantly."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "euronews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/16/us-strikes-around-tehran-for-first-time-in-most-recent-wave-of-attacks-says-iranian-state-",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Iran launched retaliatory attacks on US military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Jordan after the US expanded airstrikes into northern Iran.",
      "publisher": "euronews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T03:45:08.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/16/us-strikes-around-tehran-for-first-time-in-most-recent-wave-of-attacks-says-iranian-state-"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 8% reflects the high legal and procedural bar for Article 5 invocation, not merely the presence of hostilities near allied-hosted US forces."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "euronews.com: Iran launches retaliatory attacks on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and J",
      "url": "https://www.euronews.com/2026/07/16/us-strikes-around-tehran-for-first-time-in-most-recent-wave-of-attacks-says-iranian-state-",
      "published_at": "2026-07-16T03:45:08.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-16T10:04:17+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nato-article-5-invoked-before-2027-polymarket-8-2026-07-16/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nato-article-5-invoked-before-2027-polymarket-8-2026-07-16.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}