{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260821VS05",
  "record_slug": "nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-october-vol-71132",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "NATO-Russia clash by Oct 31 holds low at 14%",
  "telemetry": "14% · $71K 24h",
  "headline": "NATO-Russia clash Oct 31: 14% on $71K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0XQBBK1P10",
  "target_event_slug": "nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025",
  "event_question": "Will there be a NATO-Russia military clash by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x2a4fcda5c1598fc8621cf96cabc410f9f23a2d0336c3bff5070a37a663d39e94",
    "question_raw": "NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 71132.142165,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 216474.11696400002,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-10-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 14%, Polymarket assigns low but non-trivial odds to a NATO-Russia military clash within the next 70 days.",
    "24h volume of $71K is 33% of all-time, notable fresh interest on a longer-dated contract than the Aug 31 sibling.",
    "The Oct 31 contract's 14% vs. the Aug 31 contract's 3% illustrates the market pricing meaningful but distant escalation risk.",
    "Geopolitical catalysts driving the Aug 31 spike likely also pulled fresh capital into this extended time horizon."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 71132.142165
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will there be a NATO-Russia military clash by 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nato-x-russia-military-clash-in-2025",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-october-vol-71132/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nato-x-russia-military-clash-by-october-vol-71132.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}