{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102007",
  "record_slug": "nc-05-house-seat-republican-win-polymarket-87-2026-10-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Republican holds NC-05 House seat stays heavily favored",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 87%",
  "headline": "NC-05 House seat Republican win: Polymarket 87%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-1WW8223651",
  "target_event_slug": "nc-05-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the NC-05 House seat be won by a Republican in the 2026 election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xc4f1456dc523bfe110e6a2afc7c2144ef3925650e78fa826d2211ddae6763a3d",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party win the NC-05 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.87,
    "volume_24h_usd": 9.89,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Republican win in North Carolina's 5th Congressional District at 87%, a strong favorite reading ahead of the November 3 midterms.",
    "Trump's in-state rally reinforces but does not move the already heavy Republican advantage the market has priced into the NC-05 seat.",
    "Companion Polymarket contracts in nearby North Carolina districts, NC-03 at 81% Republican (CM-EVT-MCNRMD34V7) and NC-07 at 80% Republican (CM-EVT-9L1SW3NVQ0), show a consistent statewide lean.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle on election night or certified results; all three NC contracts show the market pricing a Republican sweep of contested state districts."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-ukraine-zelenskyy-congress-midterm-elections-a298dcb9327bbad29c0bcc9e61955edb",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump campaigned in North Carolina as part of a final GOP midterm push, with $5,000 checks deployed as a turnout tool even as some Republican voters expressed skepticism.",
      "publisher": "The Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-ukraine-zelenskyy-congress-midterm-elections-a298dcb9327bbad29c0bcc9e61955edb"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket NC-05 contract at 87%; NC-03 at 81% and NC-07 at 80% form a coherent statewide Republican pricing cluster, consistent with Trump's defensive-rally framing."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Associated Press: The Latest: Trump to campaign in North Carolina as part of final GOP p",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/trump-ukraine-zelenskyy-congress-midterm-elections-a298dcb9327bbad29c0bcc9e61955edb",
      "published_at": "2026-10-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-22T07:47:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nc-05-house-seat-republican-win-polymarket-87-2026-10-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nc-05-house-seat-republican-win-polymarket-87-2026-10-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}