{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082002",
  "record_slug": "near-term-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-99-28-2026-08-20",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds near-term upper bound stays near 3.5 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Near-term Fed funds upper bound at 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi 99%/28%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound (near-term meeting)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.28,
    "volume_24h_usd": 461.89,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder shows 99% above 3.50% but only 28% above 3.75%, firmly anchoring the implied upper bound in the 3.50-3.75% range.",
    "Three dissenters at July FOMC pushed for an immediate hike, yet the Kalshi distribution treats a move above 3.75% as a low-probability outcome.",
    "The market is broadly consistent with a hold at 3.50% as the modal outcome, with the hawkish minutes not shifting the implied range higher.",
    "Kalshi prices a large-cut scenario (CM-EVT-RWRZ1R3SD6) at only 6%, reinforcing that both tails are heavily discounted."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ANI",
          "source_url": "https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-fed-minutes-signal-rate-hike-debate-as-inflation-risks-persist-3-officials-favoured-25-bps-increase/article71368240.ece",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:01+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed minutes revealed three officials favored an immediate 25-basis-point hike, with many others flagging the need to act if inflation persists.",
      "publisher": "ANI",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-fed-minutes-signal-rate-hike-debate-as-inflation-risks-persist-3-officials-favoured-25-bps-increase/article71368240.ece"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder resolves against the published federal funds rate upper bound following the relevant FOMC decision."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ANI: US Fed Minutes signal rate hike debate as inflation risks persist; 3 o",
      "url": "https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/world/us-fed-minutes-signal-rate-hike-debate-as-inflation-risks-persist-3-officials-favoured-25-bps-increase/article71368240.ece",
      "published_at": "2026-08-20T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-21T08:35:01+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/near-term-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-99-28-2026-08-20/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/near-term-fed-funds-upper-bound-at-3-50-3-75-kalshi-99-28-2026-08-20.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}