{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102907",
  "record_slug": "negative-us-gdp-growth-2026-polymarket-3-2026-10-29",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Negative US GDP growth in 2026 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 3%",
  "headline": "Negative US GDP growth 2026: Polymarket 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-36YHF72CQ8",
  "target_event_slug": "negative-gdp-growth-in-2026",
  "event_question": "Will there be negative GDP growth in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd8c1b0a73653b1fb4fb6e8d13d0063d25810870d7ddf83e61fffb4de4522edf1",
    "question_raw": "Negative GDP growth in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.029,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-29T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices negative US GDP growth in 2026 at just 3%, consistent with a strong Q3 beat of 3.4% annualized growth.",
    "The Q3 print directly undercuts any recession narrative; the Polymarket contract is aligned with the data, not at odds with it.",
    "Persistent above-target inflation complicates the picture but does not threaten growth-positive resolution of this contract.",
    "Polymarket resolves via UMA oracle; with Q3 final data already at 3.4%, the full-year negative GDP outcome would require a severe Q4 contraction."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Stephan Bisaha",
          "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/10/29/nx-s1-6020539/two-reports-give-insight-on-the-economy-ahead-of-election-day",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T14:47:28+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Q3 2026 US GDP grew 3.4%, beating forecasts, while September PCE inflation accelerated above the Fed's 2% target, providing a final pre-election economic snapshot.",
      "publisher": "Stephan Bisaha",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/10/29/nx-s1-6020539/two-reports-give-insight-on-the-economy-ahead-of-election-day"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 3% pricing on negative 2026 GDP is effectively a tail-risk residual after a strong Q3 print; the market is fully aligned with the bullish growth data."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Stephan Bisaha: Two reports give insight on the economy ahead of Election Day : NPR",
      "url": "https://www.npr.org/2026/10/29/nx-s1-6020539/two-reports-give-insight-on-the-economy-ahead-of-election-day",
      "published_at": "2026-10-29T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-30T14:47:28+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/negative-us-gdp-growth-2026-polymarket-3-2026-10-29/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/negative-us-gdp-growth-2026-polymarket-3-2026-10-29.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}