{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026071407",
  "record_slug": "new-house-winner-sc-6-by-deadline-kalshi-92-2026-07-14",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-14T18:40:37.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "South Carolina 6th District new House winner nears full pricing",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 92%",
  "headline": "New House winner SC-6 by deadline: Kalshi 92%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-07-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HT8B6GN884",
  "target_event_slug": "kxhouserace-sc06-26",
  "event_question": "Will a new House winner be elected in South Carolina's 6th Congressional District by January 4, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXHOUSERACE-SC06-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratic win the House race for SC-06?",
    "current_price": 0.923,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Library of Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T17:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a new House winner being elected in South Carolina's 6th Congressional District at 92%.",
    "Darline Graham Nordone's Senate swearing-in confirms the vacancy, making an election procedurally necessary and consistent with 92% pricing.",
    "The 8% residual likely reflects uncertainty around timeline rather than whether an election will occur at all.",
    "Resolves via Library of Congress; a certified election result by the stated deadline is the settlement trigger."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "usatoday.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/14/darline-graham-nordone-swearing-in-south-carolina-senate-lindsey/90916631007/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-15T10:00:10+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Darline Graham Nordone was sworn in as US senator replacing her late brother Lindsey Graham, vacating South Carolina's 6th Congressional District seat.",
      "publisher": "usatoday.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T18:40:37.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/14/darline-graham-nordone-swearing-in-south-carolina-senate-lindsey/90916631007/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi at 92% is consistent with the vacancy now being formally confirmed; resolution depends on the Library of Congress certification."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "usatoday.com: Sen. Darline Graham Nordone sworn in, replacing late brother Lindsey",
      "url": "https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2026/07/14/darline-graham-nordone-swearing-in-south-carolina-senate-lindsey/90916631007/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-14T18:40:37.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-15T10:00:10+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/new-house-winner-sc-6-by-deadline-kalshi-92-2026-07-14/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/new-house-winner-sc-6-by-deadline-kalshi-92-2026-07-14.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}