{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG2026102308",
  "record_slug": "new-mexico-senate-seat-to-republicans-kalshi-97-2026-10-23",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "New Mexico Senate seat going Republican nears full pricing at 97 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 97%",
  "headline": "New Mexico Senate seat to Republicans: Kalshi 97%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-ZD0C3KWW30",
  "target_event_slug": "senatenm-26",
  "event_question": "Will the New Mexico Senate seat be won by a Republican in the next election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "SENATENM-26-D",
    "question_raw": "Will Democratics win the Senate race in New Mexico?",
    "current_price": 0.966,
    "volume_24h_usd": 35.88,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "United States Congress",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-04T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Kalshi prediction market prices a Republican win of the New Mexico Senate seat at 97%, with trading volume up 4,755% day-over-day, a massive surge of fresh activity.",
    "The volume spike on this contract, alongside Barrasso's public optimism about GOP Senate control, suggests traders are rapidly repricing Republican Senate prospects in individual races.",
    "A companion Kalshi contract (CM-EVT-T5VXKJT451) on Republicans controlling at least one chamber after the midterms sits at 66%, a much wider margin of doubt for the chamber-level outcome.",
    "Resolution is via the United States Congress as listed on Kalshi; the contract settles on the certified winner of the New Mexico Senate race."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Calen Razor",
          "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/inside-congress",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "POLITICO's Inside Congress newsletter reported Barrasso as 'very optimistic' the GOP keeps the Senate, with Democrats mounting late bets in races like Mississippi.",
      "publisher": "Calen Razor",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/inside-congress"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi's 97% on the New Mexico Republican Senate win, with a 4,755% volume surge, is the sharpest individual race signal in the current data set."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Calen Razor: Inside Congress Newsletter - POLITICO",
      "url": "https://www.politico.com/newsletters/inside-congress",
      "published_at": "2026-10-23T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-24T07:48:16+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
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    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/new-mexico-senate-seat-to-republicans-kalshi-97-2026-10-23.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
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