{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081205",
  "record_slug": "nh-gov-senate-same-party-combo-kalshi-71-2026-08-12",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "New Hampshire same-party governor-senate outcome stays favored",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 71%",
  "headline": "NH Gov-Senate same-party combo: Kalshi 71%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2P1810WLM7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxnhsengovcombo-26nov",
  "event_question": "Will the Governor of New Hampshire and the U.S. Senator from New Hampshire be from the same political party by 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXNHSENGOVCOMBO-26NOV-REPDEM",
    "question_raw": "Will New Hampshire Governor winner be Republican party and New Hampshire Senate winner be Democratic party?",
    "current_price": 0.71,
    "volume_24h_usd": 4529.43,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-11-03T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices New Hampshire electing a governor and senator from the same party at 71%, making it the most likely single-party sweep among tracked states.",
    "Volume on this contract jumped 194x day over day, consistent with primary results shifting the perceived probability of a unified New Hampshire outcome.",
    "Iowa's same-party contract at 35% and Michigan's at 53% show the market sees wide variation in state-level sweep probability across competitive midterm battlegrounds.",
    "Resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics as named source; final settlement depends on certified general-election results in November 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/democrats-wisconsin-primary-hong-crowley-flanagan-0618c650d24c17a2a8f2d3273d813808",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-15T08:21:50+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Democratic primary voters are prioritizing change candidates, reshaping competitive state general-election landscapes ahead of November 2026 midterms.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/democrats-wisconsin-primary-hong-crowley-flanagan-0618c650d24c17a2a8f2d3273d813808"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi volume on CM-EVT-2P1810WLM7 rose 194x day over day, one of the strongest activity signals in the midterm suite, pointing to meaningful fresh positioning after primary results."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: Democratic voters are making clear they just want change | AP News",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/democrats-wisconsin-primary-hong-crowley-flanagan-0618c650d24c17a2a8f2d3273d813808",
      "published_at": "2026-08-12T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-15T08:21:50+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nh-gov-senate-same-party-combo-kalshi-71-2026-08-12/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nh-gov-senate-same-party-combo-kalshi-71-2026-08-12.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}