{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260729VS06",
  "record_slug": "no-change-in-reserve-bank-of-australia-s-vol-20437",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "RBA August hold near certain as fresh volume piles in at 96%",
  "telemetry": "96% · $20K 24h",
  "headline": "RBA Aug no change: 96% on $20K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-C9F29RSWM7",
  "target_event_slug": "reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august",
  "event_question": "Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make a decision in August?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x8c39e2ee7d85026ab1e23dd0ad927676f4c5b122051effafbe7764f817dbdc37",
    "question_raw": "No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.963,
    "volume_24h_usd": 20437.010612,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 43447.47115500001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-11T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Reserve Bank of Australia holding rates in August at 96%, near-consensus.",
    "47% of all-time volume arrived in 24h, the contract's single largest session ahead of the meeting.",
    "Recent Australian inflation or jobs data likely confirmed the hold view, drawing late confirmation trades.",
    "Resolves on the RBA August 2026 decision; at 96% the contract is trading like a done deal."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 20437.010612
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make a decision in A",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-august",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-29T10:36:04+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/no-change-in-reserve-bank-of-australia-s-vol-20437/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/no-change-in-reserve-bank-of-australia-s-vol-20437.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}