{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110904",
  "record_slug": "nonfarm-productivity-above-3-in-2026-kalshi-36-2026-11-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-09T07:54:32.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Productivity above 3 percent stays a long shot at 36%",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi 36%",
  "headline": "Nonfarm productivity above 3% in 2026: Kalshi 36%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-99JZRM47M6",
  "target_event_slug": "kxnfprod-27mar04",
  "event_question": "Will U.S. nonfarm productivity year-over-year growth exceed 3% in any quarter of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXNFPROD-27MAR04-T3",
    "question_raw": "Will U.S. nonfarm productivity YoY in any quarter for 2026 be above 3%?",
    "current_price": 0.36,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0.72,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation",
    "resolves_at": "2027-06-02T15:30:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi puts 36% odds on US nonfarm productivity year-over-year growth exceeding 3% in any quarter of 2026, resolving via BLS Employment Situation.",
    "The analyst thesis that productivity could neutralize inflationary pressure from payroll gains is a minority view: the market assigns it less than 4-in-10 odds.",
    "If productivity fails to exceed 3%, the Fed's case for hiking based on labor market strength alone becomes more straightforward.",
    "Resolution requires BLS to report a single quarter of productivity growth above 3% year-over-year before year-end; partial quarters do not qualify."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Nikolaos Akkizidis",
          "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-us-jobs-surprise-may-be-less-inflationary-than-markets-think-202611090754",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "An independent analyst argued the strong October jobs surprise may be less inflationary than markets think if productivity gains absorb labor cost pressure.",
      "publisher": "Nikolaos Akkizidis",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T07:54:32.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-us-jobs-surprise-may-be-less-inflationary-than-markets-think-202611090754"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi binary contract; resolves via Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report; 36% reflects a meaningful but sub-consensus probability."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Nikolaos Akkizidis: The US jobs surprise may be less inflationary than markets think",
      "url": "https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-us-jobs-surprise-may-be-less-inflationary-than-markets-think-202611090754",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T07:54:32.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nonfarm-productivity-above-3-in-2026-kalshi-36-2026-11-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nonfarm-productivity-above-3-in-2026-kalshi-36-2026-11-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}