{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081908",
  "record_slug": "north-korea-invades-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-08-19",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "North Korea invading South Korea before 2027 stays a long shot",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 3%",
  "headline": "North Korea invades South Korea before 2027: Polymarket 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
  "target_event_slug": "will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84dc47b1dd9cd99a9217b92a95690729334b647650bb6bf676bb31c3db0d7f79",
    "question_raw": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.028,
    "volume_24h_usd": 48.13,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 3% on North Korea invading South Korea before 2027, a deep long-shot despite the diplomatic shift.",
    "Trump cutting drills short and praising Kim Jong Un is a significant security signal, but markets are not pricing an imminent invasion scenario.",
    "The news and market pricing diverge in magnitude, the geopolitical gesture is real, but the Polymarket contract shows no escalation pricing.",
    "Resolves via UMA oracle on a confirmed North Korean military invasion, a high evidentiary bar that keeps the contract anchored near zero."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/International/us-south-korea-military-drills-end-early-after/story?id=135763052",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "US-South Korea joint military drills were cut short after a surprise Trump order, with Trump calling the exercises hostile toward North Korea.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/International/us-south-korea-military-drills-end-early-after/story?id=135763052"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 3% resolves via UMA oracle; the low reading reflects markets treating the diplomatic overture as posturing, not a security breakdown."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: US-South Korea military drills to end early after Trump order, Seoul s",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/International/us-south-korea-military-drills-end-early-after/story?id=135763052",
      "published_at": "2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-20T08:32:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/north-korea-invades-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-08-19/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/north-korea-invades-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-08-19.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}