{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026082108",
  "record_slug": "north-korea-invades-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-08-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "North Korea invasion of South Korea stays near zero odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 3%",
  "headline": "North Korea invades South Korea before 2027: Polymarket 3%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
  "target_event_slug": "will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84dc47b1dd9cd99a9217b92a95690729334b647650bb6bf676bb31c3db0d7f79",
    "question_raw": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.031,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket contract on North Korea invading South Korea before 2027 sits at 3%.",
    "Cutting the drill short after North Korea's missile barrage is a de-escalatory signal, consistent with the market assigning near-zero invasion probability.",
    "The Kim Jong Un leadership contract on Kalshi sits at 4% for departure by year-end, suggesting continuity at the top further limits tail-risk scenarios.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; an invasion requires a recognized armed incursion across the border, setting a high evidentiary bar for Yes settlement."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "apnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/north-south-korea-us-drills-trump-kim-e0350e23feac60adfa60f2cbf5eff27f",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "The US and South Korea wrapped up the Ulchi Freedom Shield drill six days early, one day after North Korea launched a missile barrage.",
      "publisher": "apnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://apnews.com/article/north-south-korea-us-drills-trump-kim-e0350e23feac60adfa60f2cbf5eff27f"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket holds North Korea invasion odds at 3% despite the missile barrage, treating the early drill end as a net stabilizing signal."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "apnews.com: US and South Korea wrap up Ulchi Freedom Shield drills 6 days early |",
      "url": "https://apnews.com/article/north-south-korea-us-drills-trump-kim-e0350e23feac60adfa60f2cbf5eff27f",
      "published_at": "2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/north-korea-invades-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-08-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/north-korea-invades-south-korea-before-2027-polymarket-3-2026-08-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}