{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026100307",
  "record_slug": "north-korea-invades-south-korea-polymarket-1-2026-10-03",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "North Korea invading South Korea stays near zero odds",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 1%",
  "headline": "North Korea invades South Korea: Polymarket 1%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-03",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-GGMF8V7JH2",
  "target_event_slug": "will-north-korea-invade-south-korea-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x84dc47b1dd9cd99a9217b92a95690729334b647650bb6bf676bb31c3db0d7f79",
    "question_raw": "Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.014,
    "volume_24h_usd": 5.045872,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only a 1% chance North Korea invades South Korea before 2027.",
    "The missile launch and border mine incidents are escalatory signals, yet the Polymarket contract is consistent with viewing this as provocation, not invasion precursor.",
    "Kim Jong Un remaining Supreme Leader through year-end sits at 96% implied (4% on exit), a stable leadership picture that reduces invasion scenario odds.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle; a confirmed cross-border military invasion, not a missile test or skirmish, is required."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "By: FRANCE 24",
          "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20261003-north-korea-fires-ballistic-missile-after-seoul-s-apology-demand",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T12:59:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "North Korea launched a ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan amid renewed border tensions with South Korea following mine blasts.",
      "publisher": "By: FRANCE 24",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20261003-north-korea-fires-ballistic-missile-after-seoul-s-apology-demand"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket's 1% on invasion versus 4% on Kim Jong Un exit shows the market is more uncertain about North Korean leadership than about all-out war."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "By: FRANCE 24: North Korea launches ballistic missile as tensions with Seoul grow ove",
      "url": "https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20261003-north-korea-fires-ballistic-missile-after-seoul-s-apology-demand",
      "published_at": "2026-10-03T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-03T12:59:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/north-korea-invades-south-korea-polymarket-1-2026-10-03/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/north-korea-invades-south-korea-polymarket-1-2026-10-03.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}