{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110602",
  "record_slug": "nov-2026-cpi-change-above-0-0-kalshi-64-2026-11-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Monthly CPI stays near flat, long-shot odds on any rise",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Nov 2026 CPI change above 0.0%: Kalshi 64%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26nov",
  "event_question": "November 2026 monthly CPI change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T0.1",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.1% in November 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.37,
    "volume_24h_usd": 105.74,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies November 2026 CPI change near 0.0-0.1%: 64% above 0.0%, only 37% above 0.1%.",
    "Volume rose 35x day-over-day on this contract, consistent with the week's heavy macro data flow drawing active positioning.",
    "The sharp drop from 64% at the 0.0% strike to 37% at 0.1% reflects genuine uncertainty over whether inflation re-accelerates from the flat zone.",
    "Cross-read with the core CPI year-end ladder (67% above 2.7%) suggests markets expect contained but persistent inflation, not a sharp re-acceleration."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "usbank.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The U.S. Bank weekly outlook flags a strengthening labor market and ongoing inflation pressure as the dominant macro themes.",
      "publisher": "usbank.com",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi contract on November 2026 monthly CPI change saw 35x volume increase, the second-largest volume spike in today's data set."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "usbank.com: Weekly Economic Outlook | U.S. Bank",
      "url": "https://www.usbank.com/corporate-and-commercial-banking/insights/economy/outlook/weekly.html",
      "published_at": "2026-11-06T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-08T14:44:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nov-2026-cpi-change-above-0-0-kalshi-64-2026-11-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nov-2026-cpi-change-above-0-0-kalshi-64-2026-11-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}