{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110204",
  "record_slug": "nov-cpi-change-kalshi-ladder-implies-0-1-to-0-2-2026-11-02",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-02T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "November CPI consensus leans mildly positive, below 0.2 percent",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Nov CPI change: Kalshi ladder implies +0.1% to +0.2%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26nov",
  "event_question": "November 2026 CPI month-over-month change",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T0.2",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.2% in November 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.48,
    "volume_24h_usd": 26.84,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices November 2026 CPI in the +0.1% to +0.2% range: 63% above 0.1%, 48% above 0.2%, dropping to 22% above 0.3%.",
    "September PCE reacceleration to 3.6% is a hawkish backdrop, but the Kalshi distribution for November CPI does not price an outsized spike, suggesting the market is not yet pricing a second-order PCE-to-CPI spillover.",
    "The 84% probability above 0.0% means deflation or flat CPI is largely ruled out; only a modest positive print is the consensus expectation.",
    "The core CPI annual rate ladder (event CM-EVT-BXDL61HVR9 from story 6) puts 60% on year-over-year core CPI above 2.8%, offering a longer-horizon complement that confirms persistent above-target pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "International Finance Business Desk",
          "source_url": "https://internationalfinance.com/macroeconomy/midterms-2026-us-gdp-grows-3-4-but-inflation-keeps-pressure-on-economy/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "PCE inflation accelerated to 3.6% in September from 3.4% in August, underscoring persistent price pressures in the US economy ahead of the midterms.",
      "publisher": "International Finance Business Desk",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://internationalfinance.com/macroeconomy/midterms-2026-us-gdp-grows-3-4-but-inflation-keeps-pressure-on-economy/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder covers the November 2026 CPI month-over-month distribution; the market-implied range of 0.1-0.2% is a modest positive reading despite a hot PCE backdrop."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "International Finance Business Desk: Midterms 2026: US GDP grows 3.4%, but inflation keeps pressure on econ",
      "url": "https://internationalfinance.com/macroeconomy/midterms-2026-us-gdp-grows-3-4-but-inflation-keeps-pressure-on-economy/",
      "published_at": "2026-11-02T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-02T07:48:26+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nov-cpi-change-kalshi-ladder-implies-0-1-to-0-2-2026-11-02/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/nov-cpi-change-kalshi-ladder-implies-0-1-to-0-2-2026-11-02.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}