{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026110903",
  "record_slug": "november-cpi-mom-implied-near-0-1-to-0-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-09",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Month-over-month CPI seen flat to slightly negative",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "November CPI MoM implied near -0.1 to 0.0%: Kalshi ladder",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-10",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-T57DHL6V48",
  "target_event_slug": "kxcpi-26nov",
  "event_question": "CPI month-over-month change (November 2026)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXCPI-26NOV-T0.0",
    "question_raw": "Will CPI rise more than 0.0% in November 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.29,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1078.73,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Bureau of Labor Statistics",
    "resolves_at": "2027-03-11T14:56:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder implies November CPI month-over-month in the -0.1 to 0.0% range: 56% at -0.1%, 29% at 0.0%, only 16% at 0.1% or above.",
    "Trading volume on this contract rose 6,389% day-over-day, confirming the CPI release is drawing the largest fresh prediction-market attention of the cycle.",
    "The implied flat-to-negative monthly reading sits at odds with the 'persistent inflation' narrative in analyst commentary, suggesting the market is not fully pricing in shelter stickiness.",
    "Resolution depends on the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly CPI release; a reading at or below zero would validate the modal Kalshi pricing."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "newyorkfed.org",
          "source_url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20261109",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "The NY Fed's October consumer survey showed stable inflation expectations even as labor market sentiment deteriorated.",
      "publisher": "newyorkfed.org",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20261109"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder; volume up 64.9x day-over-day is the strongest flow signal in today's data set."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "newyorkfed.org: Inflation Expectations Stable; Labor Market Expectations Mixed - FEDER",
      "url": "https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20261109",
      "published_at": "2026-11-09T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-10T07:47:48+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/november-cpi-mom-implied-near-0-1-to-0-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-09/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/november-cpi-mom-implied-near-0-1-to-0-0-kalshi-ladder-2026-11-09.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}